Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
